Global temperatures in 2026 set to rank second-warmest on record
Copernicus puts the odds of 2026 ranking second-warmest at about 80 percent, and October 2026 was the hottest October on record.
Global temperatures in 2026 are likely to rank as the second-highest on record and to pass 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for a second straight year, Turkey's state-run news agency Anadolu Agency reported on Friday.
The EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service said its latest climate assessment, based on data through October, gives 2026 a probability of about 80 percent of ranking as the second-warmest year.
The service also put the chance of this year's global average temperature matching or exceeding the 2024 record at 20 percent.
Copernicus said the four-year average for 2023 to 2026 is also expected to surpass the 1.5C mark.
October was the hottest October recorded worldwide, with an average surface air temperature of 15.35C, the service said.
That month ran 1.75C above the estimated pre-industrial average, marking the third consecutive month in which global temperatures exceeded 1.5C.
Average sea surface temperature outside polar regions reached 20.95C in October, the highest level recorded for that month.
El Nino conditions kept strengthening across the tropical Pacific, and Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said an unusually strong El Nino is adding more heat to a planet already warmed by human activity.
Europe recorded its second-warmest October, with an average land temperature of 11.51C, 1.49C above the 1991-2020 average, Copernicus said.
The service also flagged persistent dry conditions in parts of western Iberia, France, central and eastern Europe, the Balkans and peninsular Italy.
River flows remained exceptionally low across large parts of central and eastern Europe, affecting the Rhine, Danube and Vistula.
Arctic sea ice extent was about 9 percent below average in October, ranking as the 13th lowest for the month in the 48-year satellite record, while Black Sea ice extent hit a record low for October.
Antarctic sea ice extent was also around 9 percent below average, the second-lowest October level on record after 2023, Copernicus said.
The 1.5C threshold refers to the goal set under the Paris Agreement of limiting long-term global warming to that level above pre-industrial temperatures.
