Experts discuss Middle East reconstruction costs in Istanbul
Lebanon, Gaza and Syria would need about $20 billion, at least $75 billion and roughly three times that, a former OECD chief estimated.
Panelists at a session of the TRT World Forum in Istanbul on Saturday discussed the economic fallout from Middle East wars, the funding of postwar rebuilding and risks to financial stability, Turkey's state-run news agency Anadolu Agency reported.
The panel, titled Towards a Rocky Recovery: National Economies After the Wars in the Middle East, was part of the 10th edition of the forum, held at the Istanbul Congress Center under the theme of who leads when existing rules break down.
Auskar Surbakti moderated the discussion, which included former OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria, European Policy Centre Chief Executive and Chief Economist Fabian Zuleeg, University College London Honorary Professor Steve Keen and Lebanese Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri.
Mitri said Israel's occupation of Lebanese territory is continuing and that attacks have made many villages impossible to live in.
He named the plight of displaced people as one of Lebanon's most urgent problems, saying damaged infrastructure must be repaired before they can go home.
Mitri said recovery and rebuilding are "always possible," however deeply the conflicts had divided Lebanese society.
Gurria said the cost of rebuilding countries wrecked by war is enormous.
He estimated that Lebanon would need about $20 billion, Gaza at least $75 billion and Syria roughly three times that figure.
Gurria said no single country or institution could carry that burden alone, and called for money from multilateral and regional development banks, the United States, the European Union, Gulf states and national governments.
He said Gulf capital could play an especially large role in financing the region's recovery by sharing financial risk.
Zuleeg said the effect of Middle East instability on global markets and trade would depend largely on how long the conflicts last.
He said energy prices were already creating economic problems in Europe, and although supply restrictions had not yet appeared, prolonged instability could eventually cause shortages.
Zuleeg also warned of slow growth, high inflation and disrupted trade routes, and said developments in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war are reshaping Europe's economic and security policies.
Keen argued that the global economy puts too much weight on public debt, while private-sector borrowing is a main driver of financial instability.
He said the ratio of public debt to gross domestic product rose from 63 percent to 75 percent over the past 70 years, while the private-sector ratio jumped from 55 percent to 155 percent.
Keen said conventional economic policies had largely ignored the growing risks of private debt, and added that speculative activity in private finance and its funding of the military-industrial sector also pose significant risks to the global economy.
Lebanon, Gaza and Syria have all faced repeated conflict in recent years, leaving large numbers of people displaced and infrastructure badly damaged.
