Irish unification could cost up to 25 billion euros a year, study finds

Reunifying Ireland could cost the Irish government as much as 25 billion euros ($28 billion) in its first year, Turkey's state-run news agency Anadolu Agency reported on Sunday.

The economic assessment was prepared by economist Stephen Kinsella for Fine Gael, a coalition partner in Ireland's government, as part of its report titled "A Blueprint for a Unified Island."

The study estimates initial costs could range from 3 billion euros ($3.34 billion) to 25 billion euros, depending on the model chosen and the financial arrangements agreed with the United Kingdom.

It examines four approaches: a unitary state, a federal system, managed integration and a higher-cost model.

Under the most expensive scenario, annual costs could reach 41.2 billion euros ($45.92 billion) by the 25th year, the study said, assuming Northern Ireland's economy grows 2% a year.

That scenario also assumes Dublin takes on previously accumulated pension obligations and debt interest, the study said.

The study identifies the division of financial responsibilities between London and Dublin as a major factor in the financial impact.

The costs of aligning public-sector wages and welfare payments across the island also weigh heavily on the outcome, the study said.

None of the four models would repay transition borrowing within 25 years under the assumed 2% growth rate, the study found.

The assessment stresses that its projections are illustrative rather than definitive, and it does not advocate for or against reunification, the study said.

Ireland's status has been a long-running political question since the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which set out a process under which Northern Ireland could hold a border poll on leaving the United Kingdom.